Morning Expresso – Australasia "Tuesday 12 May 2026"

Research evidence excerpt

Morning Expresso – Australasia "Tuesday 12 May 2026"

CSL - Ambitious guidance, foreseeable outcome

Downgrades erode confidence but core business intact Pharmaceuticals

FY26 NPATA is now expected to fall ~7% short of CSL’s prior “ambitious” guidance, reflecting pressure

in key markets - US Ig and Chinese albumin, and was ~4% below our recently adjusted forecasts

(before FX headwinds). While neither issue appears structural and management has outlined steps to RATING: Buy

restore performance, a further $5b of impairments (on top of $1.6b in 1H) highlights the earnings TARGET: A$175.00

deterioration since the Vifor acquisition. Despite this, we see compelling valuation support, with CSL

trading at a material discount to the ASX200. However near term recovery will hinge on FY27 guidance

and clarity on the CEO succession. PRICE: A$100.75

Ig destocking and Hemgenix largely one-off in nature MCAP: A$48.5b/US$35.1b

We view the reduction of Ig inventories into the 340B channel as a proactive step after a long period of

neglect of the US market. This deeply discounted Medicare program has grown rapidly in recent years,

becoming a challenge for CSL's US pricing. Reducing the inventory should allow the company to better EPS ESTIMATES:

control and monitor usage and sets a lower bar for FY27 growth. The manufacturing issues which were 06/26E: 6.38

partially to blame for the lower hemgenix sales have now been resolved. 06/27E: 6.67

Weak Chinese albumin sales, LOE challenge more structural 06/28E: 6.94

CSL reported share gains and stabilising volumes in China but still expects a mid-single-digit sales RIC: CSL.AX

contraction in the half, consistent with Grifols reporting -6% albumin sales in the March quarter. We BBG: CSL AU