Australian Resources "Cu/Al Ratio Normalises; & Spot Scenario" Shaw

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Resources "Cu/Al Ratio Normalises; & Spot Scenario" Shaw

Powered by Lab Global12 MayResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

Australian Resources Equities

AustralasiaCu/Al Ratio Normalises; & Spot Scenario

Mining

Lachlan Shaw

Copper to Aluminium Price Ratios; & Spot Scenario Analyst

We assess the trend of the copper to aluminium price ratio, focusing on S32, RIO, and lachlan.shaw@ubs.com

AAI, with an emphasis on sensitivities to aluminium and copper prices. We view S32 as +61-3-9242 6387

having greater leverage than RIO across both copper and aluminium, while AAI has the Fintan Collins

highest leverage to aluminium specifically. Separately, we update UBS's spot scenario, Associate Analyst

which gauges price momentum should spot prices maintain. With the ME conflict fintan.collins@ubs.com

supporting higher aluminum, thermal coal, iron ore (& energy/shipping costs), MIN, S32, +61-3-9242 6179

BHP, AAI, WHC and FMG look sequentially better on spot fair value and FCF yield. Levi Spry

Analyst

Shift from Copper Strength to Aluminium Outperformance levi.spry@ubs.com

+61-3-9242 6709

The copper-to-aluminium price ratio began 2026 at elevated levels, reflecting strong

copper outperformance, but declined sharply by early Q2 as the premium unwound and Dim Ariyasinghe

relative pricing normalised. This shift indicates a reversal in momentum, with aluminium Analyst

outperforming as supply risks became more dominant.Copper price volatility was driven dim.ariyasinghe@ubs.com

+61-3-9242 6385

by speculative positioning swings, subdued physical tightness due to high inventories,

and mixed demand (stronger in China, weaker in Europe/US). In contrast, aluminium Al Harvey

gained relative support from supply-side risks, including Middle East disruptions and Analyst