Global Strategy "How to Trade Private Credit Spillovers Across All Marke..."

Research evidence excerpt

Global Strategy "How to Trade Private Credit Spillovers Across All Marke..."

Global Research

12 May 2026ab

Global Strategy Global Strategy

GlobalHow to Trade Private Credit Spillovers Across All

Markets Julien Conzano

Strategist

julien.conzano@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 2067

Executive Summary Sachin Ganesh

Our broader thesis of wider credit spreads later this year - driven primarily by mounting Associate Strategist

private credit risks and structurally weaker credit quality - remains intact. We believe sachin.ganesh@ubs.com

+1-212-713 1062

these risks have been largely overlooked as markets remain narrowly focused on

geopolitical outcomes. While recent earnings have yet to show broad based stress, early Matthew Mish, CFA

cracks are emerging, with BDC's lagging the broader market and investor focus shifting Strategist

toward valuation marks and liquidity risks. Similar to the HY shale playbook, we believe matthew.mish@ubs.com

+1-203-719 1242

the next phase of the cycle is one where dispersion becomes the dominant driver of

returns, a dynamic we do not think is yet fully priced in. Against this backdrop, and with Mustafa Oguz Caylan

markets still underpricing the tail risks linked to Private Credit/AI disruption and their Strategist

spillovers across all markets, we outline our 5 best hedges designed to monetise mustafa.caylan@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 5203

dispersion, convexity, and asymmetric downside across equities, credit and rates.

Henry Morrison-Jones

1. Long/Short BDC Equity Baskets (Figure 1-2) Strategist

henry.morrison-jones@ubs.com

First, publicly traded BDC's provide direct liquid exposure to private credit performance +44-20-7901 6656

with most funds still marked close to par and the bulk of tech loans between 97.5 and

par.