SBI Aruhi "Recovery underway" (Neutral) Watanabe

Research evidence excerpt

SBI Aruhi "Recovery underway" (Neutral) Watanabe

Global Research

12 May 2026ab

SBI Aruhi Equities

JapanRecovery underway

Diversified Financial

12-month rating Neutral

Q:What were the most noteworthy areas in the results?

The Q4 (Jan-Mar) volume of loans originated reached 3,141 (+25.6% yoy), up from 12m price target ¥910

2,972 in Q3 due partly to seasonality. Fixed-rate loan origination increased (+39% qoq)

on expectations for higher interest rates, and a market share rebound drove full-year

Price (12 May 2026) ¥846

loan origination volume to 11,318 (+10.5% yoy), the first yoy increase in six years.

However, Q4 origination revenue rose only 1.4% yoy due to a decline in loan RIC: 7198.T BBG: 7198 JP

securitisation revenue. In a rising rate environment, loan origination tends to rise but

Trading data and key metrics

origination revenue tends not to grow much, making operating expense reductions a

52-wk range ¥945-738

key earnings factor.

Market cap. ¥37.8b/US$0.24b

Q: How did the results compare vs expectations? Shares o/s 44.7m (ORD)

Free float 53%

Preliminary results were already released on 30 April (Link).

Avg. daily volume ('000) 152

Q:Has the company's outlook/guidance changed? Avg. daily value (m) ¥132.3

Common s/h equity (03/26E) ¥42.3b

The FY3/27 RP guidance of ¥3.2bn (+14% yoy) is in line with our estimate. Management

remains cautious on housing demand but expects a further recovery in fixed-rate loans P/BV (03/26E) 0.9x

and refinancing of variable-rate loans, as in the previous year. Assuming two policy rate Net debt to EBITDA (03/26E) 10.6x

hikes and a decline in loan securitisation revenue, management plans to drive earnings EPS (reported, basic) (¥)

growth with increased loan origination volume and average loan amounts (due to rising UBS Cons.

home prices).