KBC Groep NV "Stronger NII but valuation caps upside. Reiterate Neutral."

Research evidence excerpt

KBC Groep NV "Stronger NII but valuation caps upside. Reiterate Neutral."

0.77

growth, and the impact of higher swap rates, we see upside risks to consensus estimates

12/28E 11.27 11.59 3 11.80

and guidance in 2026.

Johan Ekblom, CFA

Positive result obscured by non-recurring factors Analyst

johan.ekblom@ubs.comWhile underlying trends were positive in Q1 (better NII and costs), the reported result

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paints a different picture due to the large misses on trading income and LLPs. The

positive surprises from NII and costs have been seen across the sector, and we do not Joshua Humphreys

believe the weaker trading income should necessarily be extrapolated. Additionally, the Associate Analyst

joshua.humphreys@ubs.com

addition to the buffer in itself is not necessarily concerning, considering we have seen an

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average of 22% LLP beats (equally weighted across the sector) in Q1, and excluding this

addition KBC's credit losses were 31% better than expected (underlying EUR 90m vs.

cons. 131m), which aligns with their commentary regarding no clear signs of structural

deterioration.

Valuation: 10.5x 2027E EPS and 1.9x TNAV for an expected ROTE of 17.5%

While we agree KBC deserves a premium valuation, we see limited re-rating potential

based on its current trading multiples, considering it is currently trading at a premium to

its own historical valuation on both an absolute and relative basis. We reiterate our

Neutral rating and our price target is unchanged at EUR 120.

Highlights (€m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 10,739 11,195 12,200 13,531 14,413 15,176 16,052 16,941

Pre-tax profit 4,165 4,250 4,580 5,200 5,613 6,015 6,367 6,726

Net earnings (reported) 3,335 3,330 3,452 3,911 4,237 4,568 4,842 5,123