First Read: Japan Banks "Q4 results: the earnings environment is likely ..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Japan Banks "Q4 results: the earnings environment is likely ..."

Global Research

12 May 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesJapan Banks

Q4 results: the earnings environment is likely to Japan

remain favourable in FY3/27, with prospects for Banks

strengthened shareholder returns KoichiAnalystNiwa

koichi.niwa@ubs.com

+81-3-5208 6245

Makoto IshiiQ: How did the results come in overall?

Associate Analyst

The three banking groups that reported today each delivered results that clearly makoto.ishii@ubs.com

highlighted their respective strengths. A common theme across all names was the +81-3-5208 3097

continued robustness of deposit and loan related operations in Japan. Looking ahead, a

prospective rise in Japan’s policy interest rate offers scope for earnings expansion,

underpinning a supportive earnings environment. However, there were some

differences in progress on initiatives to lift ROE. No particular surprises were apparent in

the main operating income and expense items.

Q: How were the results at Resona Holdings (8308)?

Slightly positive: growth in domestic net interest income drove earnings expansion

(Earnings Materials)

What are the key takeaways from the results? - In our view, the standout was the

prospect of a solid start to profit growth in FY3/27, the first year of the new medium

term plan. Management guides for ROE of 10.0% in FY3/27, on track toward its 14%

ROE target for FY3/29 (assuming a 1.5% policy rate). We view the strength of the

deposit and lending business, driven by loan growth and yield improvement, positively.

Meanwhile, continued investment in IT and human capital means that the ability to

absorb costs (sustained OHR improvement) via top line growth remains a key issue.

How would we expect investors to react? - We expect a positive reaction.