Cava Group Inc "Will Strong Results Bring Rewards?" (Neutral) Geiger

Research evidence excerpt

Cava Group Inc "Will Strong Results Bring Rewards?" (Neutral) Geiger

12/26E

expect solid sss and traffic driven by marketing investments, digital contribution, and From To % ch Cons.

differentiated menu offerings, even w/ weather & macro headwinds. We anticipate sss Q1E 0.18 0.18 2 0.18

momentum continued into 2Q, w/ the Glazed Salmon launch (4/20) providing a likely Q2E 0.17 0.18 4 0.17

modest sales lift, but w/ greater contribution from growing brand awareness, affinity for Q3E 0.14 0.15 6 0.15

Mediterranean cuisine from health-conscious customers, & strengthened engagement Q4E 0.04 0.04 27 0.04

from the revamped loyalty program. Yr2 store contribution will likely remain a sss 12/26E 0.52 0.55 5 0.53

headwind near-term. But we expect progress from operational improvements supported 12/27E 0.72 0.76 4 0.73

by initiatives incl the KDS rollout & labor investments, contribution from Project Soul 12/28E 0.98 1.02 4 1.04

new restaurant design rollout, and a solid menu innovation pipeline, should drive sales

Dennis Geiger, CFA

momentum going forward. We model 5.8% sss for ’26. Analyst

dennis.geiger@ubs.com

Select margin pressures should persist; focus on food costs & labor investment +1-212-713 9313

We model 25.5% restaurant margins (RLM) for 1Q, or +40 bps y/y, reflecting sales Paul Hao

leverage and relatively stable food cost inflation, partially offset by wage investments. Associate Analyst

Focus will be on any updates on food and labor inflation over the coming quarters, paul.hao@ubs.com

implications from the salmon rollout (expected 100 bps margin headwinds beginning in +1-201-352 1091

2Q), as well as pricing. We model 24.4% CAVA RLM for ’26 (or flat y/y). We forecast Nikhil Gunderia

$190MM for ’26 adj EBITDA. Associate Analyst

nikhil.gunderia@ubs.com