First Read: Ecopetrol "Positive print but volatility ahead remains" (Neutral)

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Ecopetrol "Positive print but volatility ahead remains" (Neutral)

Global Research

12 May 2026ab

First Read

Ecopetrol Equities

Positive print but volatility ahead remains Colombia

Oil Companies, Major

12-month rating Neutral *

1Q26 slightly beats expectations but key concerns are still here

EC’s 1Q26 results slightly beat both UBSe and consensus, mainly driven by stronger- 12m price target US$13.50

than-expected downstream margins amid higher international crack spreads.

Meanwhile, upstream came in line with expectations, with production at 725kboed

Price (11 May 2026) US$12.79

(vs UBSe 730kboed) and weaker oil discounts offsetting a lower lifting cost. While

we do view today’s print as positive, we continue to highlight factors within results RIC: EC.N BBG: EC US

that reinforce one of our key concerns in the investment thesis, which is the Trading data and key metrics

volatility around government measures/stance and their implications for EC

52-wk range US$15.14-8.29

strategy. Among these, we note the non-deductible wealth tax of COP1.2tn

Market cap. US$26.3b

introduced this quarter, of which COP0.3tn was recognized in 1Q26, with the

remainder to be booked throughout the year, as well as the ongoing VTA tax dispute Shares o/s 2,056m (COM)

and income tax surcharge given oil prices. Nevertheless, we also view an increased Free float 11%

volatility stemming from the upcoming presidential elections later this month, Avg. daily volume ('000) 831

which could translate into changes in capital allocation strategy. All in, with strong Avg. daily value (m) US$11.3

uncertainties for now, limited production growth and a 26E dividend yield of c8-9%, Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$23.2b

which is still below other LatAm peers at c11%, we maintain our Neutral rating.