Workday "More Signs of Demand Pressure" (Neutral) Keirstead

Research evidence excerpt

Workday "More Signs of Demand Pressure" (Neutral) Keirstead

Global Research

12 May 2026ab

Workday Equities

United StatesMore Signs of Demand Pressure

Software

12-month rating Neutral

Summary

Workday shares are -43% YTD and at 9x our CY26/FY27 FCF estimate the stock clearly 12m price target US$130.00

embeds material investor concern about the growth trajectory. That said, after our most

recent Workday partner discussions ahead of the 1Q/Apr print on Thursday May 21st,

Price (11 May 2026) US$121.42

we reaffirm our view that the near-term risk-reward on the stock is neutral-to-negative.

Partner sentiment was soft, a combo of a tough spending backdrop coupled with a sales RIC: WDAY.O BBG: WDAY US

reorg and other internal changes. We reaffirm our Neutral rating.

Trading data and key metrics

52-wk range US$274.71-112.50

Core Business Trends

Market cap. US$32.4b

On the surface, the Workday practice growth rates in 1Q provided by these three

Shares o/s 267m (COM)

partners were not that bad – “holding steady, 13% growth”, “5% growth, an average

Free float 76%

quarter, not exceptional” and “we’ll likely just fall short of our target”. But the partner

descriptions of the demand backdrop were worrisome. Each partner spoke to Avg. daily volume ('000) 5,476

challenging trends and an acknowledgement that “software budgets are getting Avg. daily value (m) US$715.1

squeezed” and “sentiment is very cautious”. The explanations varied but included AI- Common s/h equity (01/27E) US$10.5b

related uncertainty impacting software spend (checks confirmed what we’ve been P/BV (01/27E) 3.0x

hearing for 4-5 months now, that infra, data and security spend remains solid) and Iran Net debt to EBITDA (01/27E) NM

conflict/macro worries. On the AI front, the consensus view was that Workday remains