LatAm Oil & Gas "LightHouse: PBR (2x), EC, VIST, Global (3x)" Vasconcellos

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Oil & Gas "LightHouse: PBR (2x), EC, VIST, Global (3x)" Vasconcellos

lending mix. That said, as per the CEO’s comments, we

estimate that a R$0.79/l increase in gasoline prices at Petrobras refineries would

narrow the import parity gap to c20% (-R$0.90/l). Additionally, we note that every

R$0.20/l adjustment in Petrobras’ gasoline prices represents an impact of US

$0.5bn to annualized FCF.

"A miss does not mean a change to the thesis": 1Q26 results missed both UBSe and

consensus with a dividend of US$1.8bn (1.5% yield), -25% below expectations.

Overall, the main driver of the miss came from the upstream segment, as the

market may not have fully anticipated the lag in the SOE capturing higher Brent

prices, given that cargo pricing is set at shipment, but revenue recognition only

occurs upon cargo transfer, with exports to Asia taking c1 month. While this dynamic

weighed on 1Q26 results, it may also imply into a stronger 2Q26, with the company

fully capturing the higher oil environment. That said, despite today's miss, we see

limited implications for the investment thesis given the temporary nature of these

effects. On top of that, we continue to view Petrobras as one of the most attractive

O&G plays in the EMs, given its lack of exposure to the Middle East and higher

sensitivity to Brent as a net exporter. Although we see extraordinaries as unlikely in

2026, we still expect a c11% dividend yield for the year (@US$86/bbl), underpinning

our Buy rating.

EBITDA came in at US$11.7bn (+6% QoQ, +12% YoY), missing UBSe by -5% and

consensus by -9%, mainly due to weaker-than-expected upstream results given the

aforementioned pricing mechanisms, while downstream beat expectations. With

lower sequential E&P investments, headline capex totaled US$5.1bn (-19% QoQ,