Bouvet (1K) | Buy | Pipeline improving, utilisation lagging

Research evidence excerpt

Bouvet (1K) | Buy | Pipeline improving, utilisation lagging

Bouvet Buy | Target Price: NOK55.00

Estimates

We lower our 2026–28E revenue estimates by 3.2%, 2.8% and 2.4%, respectively, following a softer

Q1 and a more cautious view on utilisation recovery. Q1 revenue declined 3.5% YOY to

NOK1,037m, mainly driven by a 1.8pp lower billing ratio and lower sub-consultant revenue, partly

offset by 2.1% higher hourly rates and a higher average number of employees. We now forecast

2026E revenue of NOK3,988m, 3% below consensus, increasing to NOK4,203m in 2027E and

NOK4,308m in 2028E, 5–6% below consensus.

The key positive offset is headcount and order activity. Bouvet added 24 employees QoQ and 44

YOY, while management highlighted rising enquiry inflow through the quarter and several new or

renewed contracts, including with the Norwegian Coastal Administration, Stavanger municipality,

Nye Veier and Aker BP. This supports future delivery capacity, but we take a more conservative

view on near-term revenue conversion given the lower utilisation in Q1 and continued competitive

market conditions.

We lower our 2026–28E EPS estimates by 8.0%, 8.2% and 8.0%, respectively, mainly reflecting

lower revenue and weaker operating leverage. We reduce EBITDA by 6.0–6.5% and EBIT by 7.6–

8.0% across the forecast period. The EPS reduction is larger than the revenue reduction as lower

utilisation weighs on margin, although this is partly offset by lower sub-consultant use, lower

payroll costs versus our previous estimates and an improved gross margin assumption.

Following the revisions, we forecast EPS of NOK3.5 in 2026E, NOK3.8 in 2027E and NOK3.8 in

2028E, which is 6%, 7% and 9% below consensus. The main reason for the gap versus consensus