SNAM (1K) | Hold (Buy) | Q1 in line. Cut to Hold after a strong rally

Research evidence excerpt

SNAM (1K) | Hold (Buy) | Q1 in line. Cut to Hold after a strong rally

SNAM Hold | Target Price: EUR6.80

Q1 results in line with our preview and consensus

Q1 adjusted EBITDA reached EUR775m, c. +2% YOY, definitely in line with our forecast of

EUR776m. The YOY growth is due to the change in scope (OLT has been consolidated from March

2026, Stogit Adriatica (ex-Edison storage assets), and Ravenna LNG have been included only from

March 2025), the organic growth of the remuneration of the RAB, which more than offset the

positive one-offs recorded in Q1 2025 (EUR52m related to RAB deflator adjustments by ARERA).

EBITDA would have grown by c. +9% YOY when excluding the one-off deflator effect recognised

in Q1 2025.

Adjusted net profit came in at EUR375m, compared with our forecast of EUR366m (c. +2% A/E),

or c. -8% YOY due to higher D&A, reflecting increased investments and changes in perimeter, as

well as higher net financial expenses and higher tax rate (IRAP). The adjusted net profit should

have increased by c. 2% when excluding the one-off deflator effect recognised in Q1 2025.

Net debt stood at EUR18.5bn (or +6% QOQ versus end-2025, and definitely in line with our

preview), including EUR458m of technical capex (+16% YOY), the change in scope of consolidation

for the inclusion of OLT and the refinancing of the convertible bond in Italgas’ shares. 56% (from

52%) of the capex is aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals and 19% (from 28%) with

the EU Taxonomy.

Table 1: SNAM: Quarterly adjusted results (EURm)

Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025 Q1 2026 YOY QOQ Q1 2026E Act/Est

Revenues 970 936 940 1,039 999 3.0% -3.8% 988 1.1%

EBITDA 761 731 735 725 775 1.8% 6.9% 776 -0.1%

Margin 78.5% 78.1% 78.2% 69.8% 77.6% 78.5%

EBIT 502 440 459 412 482 -4.0% 17.0% 501 -3.8%