Allegro.eu (AO) | Buy | Q1 EBITDA beat, international guidance raised, group outlook reiterated

Research evidence excerpt

Allegro.eu (AO) | Buy | Q1 EBITDA beat, international guidance raised, group outlook reiterated

Allegro.eu Buy | Target Price: PLN34.00

Polish Operations

Poland was the key beat. Polish GMV grew 11.6% YOY to PLN 16.5bn, ahead of our PLN 16.25bn, VA’s PLN 16.24bn and company

consensus of PLN 16.21bn. Revenue was slightly below our estimate and slightly ahead of the company-collected forecast, and

Polish adj. EBITDA of PLN 1,018m was well ahead of all benchmarks, with the adjusted EBITDA/GMV margin improving to 6.2%

versus our 5.8% and VA/company consensus of 5.9%. Management attributes the EBITDA progression in Poland to GMV growth, a

broadly stable take rate and continued high-margin contribution from advertising and fintech, partly offset by higher delivery

costs and marketing investment.

The Polish revenue quality remains solid, even with limited take-rate action. Marketplace revenue grew 12.0% YOY, advertising

revenue grew 24.8% YOY to PLN369m and reached 2.28% of GMV, while logistics service revenue more than doubled to PLN129m,

helped by Allegro-managed delivery volumes reaching 45% of total delivery volumes versus 29% in Q1 2025. Allegro Pay also

remains supportive, with PLN3.9bn of loans originated and PLN2.6bn of GMV financed in the quarter.

Delivery costs were still up, but the mix message is better. Polish cost of delivery increased 19.6% YOY to PLN895m, driven by GMV

growth, Smart! penetration and the gross accounting effect from Allegro's managed deliveries. However, the continued shift to

cheaper Allegro Delivery methods reduced the cost-growth bridge by 6.8pp, partly offsetting supplier price indexation, which

supports management’s argument that the logistics strategy is gradually improving unit economics, even if the reported cost

lines remain noisy.