MENA Chemicals: Looking through the price spikes

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MENA Chemicals: Looking through the price spikes

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MENA Chemicals

Looking through the price spikes

Price Objective Change

Continue to prefer fertilisers over petchems 11 May 2026

Amid the current supply shock, we still prefer companies exposed to favourable product Equity

supply/demand balances in the medium term, not just products enjoying near-term price MENA

spikes. We reiterate our Buy on urea-exposed Fertiglobe, SABIC AN and IQCD, given our Chemicals

positive medium-term price outlook. In petchems, we stay cautious on commodity Sashank Lanka >>

petchems: Yansab and Kayan (both U/P), as China’s resilience implies oversupply risks. Research Analyst

We prefer APPC and Sipchem (Buy), which offer volume growth in the next 12M. We also Merrill+971 4Lynch425 8231(DIFC)

update PO and estimates for companies in our coverage (See exhibit 1) sashank.lanka@bofa.com

Clifton White

Higher petchem prices partially offset by lower volumes CommodityBofAS Strategist

We now expect +5% higher petchem prices in 2026E (vs our old estimate) amid +1 713 247 6812

clifton.white@bofa.com

continued supply disruption. This is partially offset by limited sales volumes for 2-3

Yiming Wang >>

months vs our previous forecast of 1-2 months due to prolonged closure of the Strait. Research Analyst

Overall, this pushes up FY26E earnings and POs across our petchems coverage by Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

+852 3508 5037

c.1.5%. For Yansab, (on the West Coast of Saudi where exports continue unabated), we yiming.wang@bofa.com

increase our FY26E EPS/PO by 43%/7% due to higher prices with unchanged volumes. Abhishek Kumar >>

Research Analyst

Prefer volume growth in petchems – Buy APPC & Sipchem Merrill+971 4Lynch425 8227(DIFC)