Qifu Technology: 1Q26 preview: risks tapering as regulatory pressure likely relieved

Research evidence excerpt

Qifu Technology: 1Q26 preview: risks tapering as regulatory pressure likely relieved

13 May 2026

Other Financial Services

Qifu Technology

1Q26 preliminary

n We anticipate a 14% QoQ decline in new loan originations and a 12% QoQ

contraction in the total loan book. This is driven by sustained pressure to

lower the APR and a reduction in micro-lending loans.

n Capital-light contributions are expected to increase from 47% in 4Q25 to

49% in 1Q26, primarily from revenue-sharing loans, ICE, and referral

services, as Qifu reduces its credit risk appetite. Simultaneously, Qifu is also

emphasizing more on-balance-sheet driven loans to smooth the transition

of its loan mixture.

n Blended revenue take rate is projected to decrease by 1.2ppts QoQ to

11.8%, squeezed by the lower APR on new loan originations.

n Provisioning charges are anticipated to be 10% lower QoQ due to fewer

loan originations and an improved new client credit profile. However, credit

costs will remain elevated at 4.9% due to pressure from vintage loans and

persistently high consumer sector credit risks.

n As a result, we anticipate the net take rate to slide from 3.2% in 4Q25 to

2.9% in 1Q26, and ROE to drop from 17.9% to 15.5%.

While near-term regulatory headwinds and the temporary halt in share repurchases

present challenges, and despite pressure on the take rate due to a lower APR, it is

anticipated to stabilize from an optimized loan product mixture. We maintain our

positive medium- to longer-term view on Qifu. We continue to value the company's

proven track record in risk management and its history of profitability. As a market

leader, Qifu is well-positioned to gain market share as smaller players exit due to

lower interest rate caps. The 11.7% FY26F dividend yield is becoming attractive,