Qifu Technology: 1Q26 preview: risks tapering as regulatory pressure likely relieved

Research evidence excerpt

Qifu Technology: 1Q26 preview: risks tapering as regulatory pressure likely relieved

13 May 2026

Other Financial Services

Qifu Technology

services, as Qifu reduces its credit risk appetite. Simultaneously, Qifu is also

emphasizing more on-balance-sheet driven loans to smooth the transition

of its loan mixture.

n Blended revenue take rate is projected to decrease by 1.2ppts QoQ to

11.8%, squeezed by the lower APR on new loan originations.

n Provisioning charges are anticipated to be 10% lower QoQ due to fewer

loan originations and an improved new client credit profile. However, credit

costs will remain elevated at 4.9% due to pressure from vintage loans and

persistently high consumer sector credit risks.

n As a result, we anticipate the net take rate to slide from 3.2% in 4Q25 to

2.9% in 1Q26, and ROE to drop from 17.9% to 15.5%.

While near-term regulatory headwinds and the temporary halt in share repurchases

present challenges, and despite pressure on the take rate due to a lower APR, it is

anticipated to stabilize from an optimized loan product mixture. We maintain our

positive medium- to longer-term view on Qifu. We continue to value the company's

proven track record in risk management and its history of profitability. As a market

leader, Qifu is well-positioned to gain market share as smaller players exit due to

lower interest rate caps. The 11.7% FY26F dividend yield is becoming attractive,

particularly as significant sector concerns begin to subside. We maintain our Buy

rating and Price Target of HK$83.90.

Downside risks: (1) A sharp deterioration in household income and consumption,

(2) tightening of credit supply by partner banks, and (3) further regulatory scrutiny

of online lenders.

Forecasts and ratios

Year End Dec 31 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E