Aerospace & Defense: Return Decomposition: WWD, ATI, HWM, BWXT Lead EPS revisions

Research evidence excerpt

Aerospace & Defense: Return Decomposition: WWD, ATI, HWM, BWXT Lead EPS revisions

Deutsche Bank

Research

North America Industry Date

United States 13 May 2026

Aerospace &

Industrials Industry Update

Aerospace & Defense Defense

Electronics

Return Decomposition: WWD, ATI,

HWM, BWXT Lead EPS revisions

Scott Deuschle

Bottom Line Research Analyst

This note provides YTD return decomposition data for our coverage universe, with +1-212-250-2014

a focus on the price return decomposition against consensus forward EPS and FCF

Sam Desai, CFA

revisions. We also provide commercial aftermarket return decomposition data Research Associate

since the start of the Iran War. +1-212-250-9761

n Aerospace revision trends remain positive: WWD has delivered the

strongest YTD revision among FY2026E EPS revisions in our coverage at

+17%. This is followed by ATI (+13%) and HWM (+10%). FY27E EPS

revisions are led by the same names: ATI (+16%), WWD (+14%), HWM

(+12%). Broadly, YTD EPS revisions have been favorable across our

coverage, with the exception of HXL and BA, though we note BA has

delivered positive 2026E FCF revisions. Aftermarket revisions have

remained positive since the start of the Iran war.

n OE sees positive return attribution from multiple expansion; aftermarket

negative: OE suppliers have seen solidly positive returns attributable to

multiple expansion, whereas aftermarket names have seen either limited

YTD multiple expansion (WWD) or outright contraction. That OE multiples

are expanding while aftermarket multiples contract reflects diverging

cyclical confidence between the two submarkets. Since the start of the Iran

War, every aftermarket stock has derated; VSEC has shown the most

multiple compression, followed by GE, RTX, and WWD, in that order.