Deutsche Lufthansa AG: Air cargo to the rescue?

Research evidence excerpt

Deutsche Lufthansa AG: Air cargo to the rescue?

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Hold Deutsche Lufthansa 13 May 2026

Forecast Change

Europe AG

Germany

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 12 May 2026 (EUR) 8.45

LHAG.DE LHA GR GER LHAG

Price Target (EUR) 7.00

Transport

ADR ISIN 52-week range (EUR) 9.50 - 6.52

Airlines

DLAKY US2515613048

Air cargo to the rescue?

Valuation & Risks

Jaime Rowbotham

Updating post 1Q26 results Research Analyst

We leave our FY26 profit and cash flow forecasts for Lufthansa broadly unchanged. +44-20-754-72690

On 19th March, with the note This Going To Hurt, we had moved from €2.2bn to

Harishankar Ramamoorthy

€1.87bn of EBIT. While we have increased our estimated fuel bill from €8.5bn to Research Analyst

€8.9bn to reflect Lufthansa’s guidance, which aligns with the current forward curve +44-20-754-12940

for unhedged requirements, the impact is offset by upgraded forecasts for air cargo

Gopal Krishan

(see below), together with a passenger airline RASK of +4.6% yoy vs +2.3% before.

Research Associate

This more ambitious forecast for unit revenues is underpinned by the positive

forward revenue commentary from LHA and its peers, together with the data

shown in our latest fares tracker. Andy Chu, FCA

Research Analyst

+44-20-754-11360

Developments in Lufthansa’s favour

As shown in figure 1 on page 2, industry wide air cargo rates have seen a sharp Price/price relative

increase to levels last seen towards the back end of 2022. While a large part of this

will be operators (including LHA) looking to pass on higher fuel costs, we think it can

lead to a period of elevated profitability for Lufthansa Cargo and have reflected this 10

in our latest forecasts. At the same time, we think the shares have been benefitting