May Go/No-Go Moment Has Arrived; Reiterate OP, BIL, $300 PT

Research evidence excerpt

May Go/No-Go Moment Has Arrived; Reiterate OP, BIL, $300 PT

to Best Buy's

Year* 6,700.7E 9,401.8E 9,565.8E affiliate marketing partners, points to physical GTA VI pre-orders going live at any

EPS in $ point Monday, May 18, through Thursday, May 21. The leak comes from multiple

FYE Mar 2026E 2027E 2028E Best Buy affiliates, and we've seen video walkthroughs and domain header checks

Q1 Jun 0.61A 0.46E 2.27E suggesting the email is real, not a hoax. The exact dates could still shift, as the email

Q2 Sep 1.46A 1.50E 2.72E refers to "GTA 6" rather than the proper name "Grand Theft Auto VI," suggesting it Q3 Dec 1.23A 2.72E 2.83E

Q4 Mar 0.56E 1.71E 2.33E might be an internal draft. Still, Rockstar could push the trailer / pre-order release

Year* 3.85E 6.40E 10.15E out a week or two to retake control of the announcement. In either scenario, we'd

P/E 62.9x 37.9x 23.9x expect a new trailer and pre-order announcement within the month. The exact day

Pricing data provided by Thomson Reuters. matters less than the bigger signal: Best Buy wouldn't be preparing to launch a pre-

*Numbers may not add up due to rounding. order promotional campaign without the go ahead from TTWO which it would only

give if it had a high degree of confidence in the November release.

We expect Q4:26 at the high end of guidance, with potential upside from Mobile.

We're modeling Q4:26 net bookings and EPS of $1,560 million and $0.56 vs.

guidance of $1,510–1,560 million and $0.46–0.56, and consensus of $1,552 million

and $0.57. Bookings could come in above guidance, driven by Mobile. Match

Factory!, Toon Blast, and Color Block Jam have been steady all year, and Zynga's

new in-app direct-pay checkout (per our March 2 Quick Note) should drive both

more bookings and better margins.