4Q26 EBITDA Target Held; Electrolyzer And Material Handling Visibility Builds

Research evidence excerpt

4Q26 EBITDA Target Held; Electrolyzer And Material Handling Visibility Builds

Sustainability

Plug Power

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC EARNINGS UPDATE

May 11, 2026

Price: $3.52 (05/11/2026) 4Q26 EBITDA Target Held; Electrolyzer And

Price Target: $3.00 (Prior $2.00) Material Handling Visibility Builds

HOLD (2)

ESG SCORE: 59/100

Jeff Osborne THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1391

1Q26 was an encouraging step toward achieving positive EBITDAS in 4Q26. Electrolyzer

jeff.osborne@tdsecurities.com

revenue drove upside, and the multi-year Amazon & Walmart refresh cadence provides

Jeffrey Rossetti visibility for Material Handling. Liquidity still leans on asset monetization, but the Louisiana ITC

646 562 1335 sale and Stream close support the bridge. Raise price target to $3 (from $2) based on ~5x 2027

jeffrey.rossetti@tdsecurities.com

EV/Sales.

John-Anthony Di Tullio

646 562 1432 Positives: 1Q26 revenue upside driven by electrolyzers. 4Q26 positive EBITDAS target

ja.ditullio@tdsecurities.com reaffirmed. Per-unit GenDrive service cost down >30%. Multi-year material handling refresh

Key Data cadence at Amazon (~20,000 units) and Walmart. Louisiana ITC is priced at a better net rate

Symbol NASDAQ: PLUG than the Georgia precedent; $142mn Stream Data Centers close in June.

Beta: 2.06 Negatives: 1Q26 cash burn higher than expected. Inventory drawdown nominal in Q1 with the

52-Week Range: $4.13-$0.70 targeted $100mn reduction weighted to 2H. The majority of 2026 material handling growth is

Market Cap: $4.9B tied to existing customers; new logos are more relevant to 2027.

Net Debt (MM): $441.9

Key Takeaways from the Call:

Cash/Share: $(0.58)

Dil. Shares Out (MM): 1,146.7 1) 1Q26 net revenue of $163.5mn was above consensus of $139.7mn. Better than expected