Post EPS Huddle: INT & Ex-US Respiratory Opp Shape The Next Leg Of Growth

Research evidence excerpt

Post EPS Huddle: INT & Ex-US Respiratory Opp Shape The Next Leg Of Growth

Biotechnology

Moderna

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC QUICK TAKE: COMPANY UPDATE

May 11, 2026

Price: $54.35 (05/8/2026) Post EPS Huddle: INT & Ex-US Respiratory

Price Target: $40.00 Opp Shape The Next Leg Of Growth

HOLD (2)

ESG SCORE: 54/100

Tyler Van Buren THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

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We were joined by management following Q1 EPS (link to note here) to discuss a strengthening

tyler.vanburen@tdsecurities.com

2026 outlook underpinned by durable, contracted ex-US partnerships and improving visibility.

Greg W. Torres, Ph.D. In the US, share gains and uptake of next-gen mNEXSPIKE could offer upside, while upcoming

646 562 1351 INT melanoma data and a Phase III portfolio support a more compelling growth story beyond

gregory.wiessner@tdsecurities.com

2026. Further details are within.

Nicholas Lorusso

646 562 1390 International-Led Growth Is Durable, With The US/Ex-Us Revenue Ratio Expected To Equalize

nick.lorusso@tdsecurities.com Throughout The Year

Sam Rollenhagen Management highlighted that Moderna's recent earnings have become largely more

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predictable vs. the early post-pandemic quarters. Q1 revenue of ~$400MM was ~80% driven by

samuel.rollenhagen@tdsecurities.com

international sales under long-term government contracts with the UK, Canada, and Australia,

Ikenna Okafor, Ph.D. with the UK being a particularly large contributor. Revenue in Q2 is expected to be closer

646 562 1395 to a 50/50 mix, bringing H1 revenue to roughly ~$500MM, still ~75% international. However,

ikenna.okafor@tdsecurities.com for FY:26, management expects a ~50/50 US vs. ex-US mix, driven by seasonally heavier US

Key Data demand in H2. Longer term, management reiterated confidence in multi-year durability from