Mainland China April 2026 materials trade Aluminium exports rose to 18-month high

Research evidence excerpt

Mainland China April 2026 materials trade Aluminium exports rose to 18-month high

11 May 2026

Equities & Commodities Mainland China April 2026 materials trade Metals & Mining

Aluminium exports rose to 18-month high China

◆ Imports (y-o-y): Copper (+3%), iron ore (+1%), coal (-13%)

Exports (y-o-y): Aluminium (+15%), steel (-9%) HowardAnalyst, Lau*,ChinaCFAMaterials

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

◆ Cost inflation and supply disruptions from the Middle East howard.h.b.lau@hsbc.com.hk

+852 2996 6625

conflict continue to keep metal prices robust with upside risk

Jonathan Brandt, CFA

Analyst, GEMs ex-Asia Metals & Mining, Pulp & Paper

◆ We prefer Aluminium among China materials HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

jon.brandt@us.hsbc.com

Aluminium (unwrought + products) exports in April’26 are up 15% y-o-y to 600kt +1 212 525 4499

amid Middle East tensions and supply disruptions outside China: Y-t-d exports are Shilan Modi*, CFA

up 9% y-o-y and we see an increased risk that Chinese aluminium exports could rise over Analyst, Metals & Mining

HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd, DIFC

2026. The Hormuz blockade, together with the 28 March attacks on key smelter facilities - shilan.modi@hsbc.com

Alba (1.65Mt) and EGA Al Taweelah (1.5Mt) - have significantly tightened the ex‑China +971 564 1212 04

supply, given the Middle East accounts for c9% of global primary aluminium output and Ishan Jain*

exports c5Mtpa (c80% of its production). Reflecting these, we continue to expect a Analyst, Metals & Mining, Pulp & Paper HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private

deeper deficit in the global primary aluminium market in 2026e and forecast LME prices to Limited

average USD3,524/t (2026e) and USD3,500/t (2027e), with upside risk in the event of a ishanjain@hsbc.co.in