LatAm Macro Semanario The quick read

Research evidence excerpt

LatAm Macro Semanario The quick read

g in some market instruments, which anticipate rate hikes in H2

2026. Beyond this, auto production and exports for April could provide more information on activity in Q2,

especially after the disappointing figures in Q1. In fact, industrial production figures for March will add

limited information, as it will likely confirm the weak performance already displayed by the preliminary Q1

GDP print. We are neutral on the MXN at current levels.

In Colombia, there will be close scrutiny on potential polling releases this coming week as we approach

the 31 May elections. While left-wing Senator Ivan Cepeda has a solid lead in polls for the first round,

second round polling is tight, and different polls have been suggesting contrasting narratives. We believe

COP will require a change in polling trends in order to start reversing recent losses. The market will also

digest a modestly above-consensus inflation print from April, which should maintain expectations for a

resumption in the tightening cycle in June. On Friday 15 May, 1Q GDP and March economic activity

figures will be released, giving us a better picture of the state of the economy at the end of 1Q.

In Chile, the central bank economist survey will be released on Tuesday 12 May. The survey contains 2-

year inflation expectations, arguably the most important indicator for the central bank as it maintains a

data-dependent policy stance and remains vigilant for any signs of deanchoring of inflation expectations.

We see no change to the policy rate this year, but expect the central bank to continue to sound cautious.

This stance should prove supportive for CLP, which should rally once we see signs of more permanent de-

escalation of tensions in the Middle East.