Trade Desk Inc (TTD US) Downgrade to Reduce: No let up in structural headwinds

Research evidence excerpt

Trade Desk Inc (TTD US) Downgrade to Reduce: No let up in structural headwinds

etitive. Negotiations are ongoing, but

52-WEEK PRICE (USD)

outcomes are unlikely win-win, in our view, given the strengthened agencies’ hand.

99.00

We hence see growing downside risks to TTD’s ad spend and take rates.

What about the AI ad opportunity? Nothing new on status of ongoing OpenAI 55.00

partnership talks, although TTD shared that CSO Samantha Jacob was leaving to 11.00

05/25 11/25 05/26

head up strategy at OpenAI, whilst remaining on the board. We think Samantha’s Target price: 20.00 High: 89.76 Low: 20.09 Current: 23.08

programmatic background, and with one foot still at TTD, is likely positive for the

Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

prospects of a future deal being struck (The Information, 3 March 2026). We caution

though that while OpenAI appears to be pursuing a diversified ad demand strategy,

Mohammed Khallouf*, CFA

this may yet prove an interim measure as it builds out its ad platform, noting that on Global Tech Platforms Analyst

HSBC Bank Middle East Ltd, DIFC

5 May it launched a self-service product with Cost-per-Click (CPC) bidding model, mohammed.khallouf@hsbc.com

bringing ChatGPT a step closer to the “Walled Garden” BigTech approach to ads that +971 4 509 3337

many industry experts believe it will inevitably pursue.

* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

Revising our estimate: We cut 2026-27e revenue by c3-5% on weak guidance and not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

a more challenging outlook; as a result, our 2026-27e adj. EPS fall by c14-17%.

Downgrade to Reduce, lower TP to USD20.00 (from USD31.00): Our multiples-

based derived TP for TTD falls to USD20.00 (USD31.00 earlier) on a lower 2027e adj.