MAIRE (=) : Fairer valuation & slower EPS growth - downgrade to Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

MAIRE (=) : Fairer valuation & slower EPS growth - downgrade to Neutral

EQUITIES

OIL & GAS

MAIRE PRICE*NEUTRALEUR15.6  TARGETFROMOUTPERFORMPRICE EUR16 (UPSIDE 3%) TARGET 14%PRICE EPS-2%26e EPS-4%27e

Fairer valuation & slower EPS growth – downgrade to Neutral

After an extraordinary performance (>1,000% TSR in 5 years and c. +50% relative outperformance11 MAY 2026

Securities Research Report in the last 12 months versus MSCI SMID), we downgrade to Neutral (from O/P) as valuation is fairer

Production time: 05:22* (London time)

now, with Maire trading close to its main peers and offering limited upside. TP up to EUR16.

Research Analysts & Publishing Entities

Michele Baldelli, CFA Momentum on order intake to stay healthy but little upside potential until 2027

BNP Paribas SA We do not doubt that Maire can get repaid for the extra costs incurred linked to the ongoing conflict,

(+39) 02 8963 1744 and it is well-placed to obtain orders related to reconstruction in the ME as well as orders from othermichele.baldelli@bnpparibas.com

geographies and markets (i.e. LNG). However, with EUR9bn intake expected already for 2026, we

see little chance for upside on such figure as giga projects will likely only come in 2027 or later.

Completion of H&G makes it more difficult to grow substantially in 2027

Hail & Gasha project revenues should decline strongly in ‘27 as completion nears 90% by the end of

‘26 according to our ests. Thus another year of strong growth may be difficult to achieve in ‘27,

particularly at the EPS level as the new Kazakhstan contracts are in JVs which means that despite

being 100% consolidated, they will come with minorities income lines limiting group EPS growth.

Nextchem IPO a key potential catalyst, but not likely in the short term in our view