KGHM Polska Miedz SA: 1Q26: Large EBITDA beat driven by revaluation effects, net debt higher

Research evidence excerpt

KGHM Polska Miedz SA: 1Q26: Large EBITDA beat driven by revaluation effects, net debt higher

Update

May 13, 2026 04:31 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MKGHM Polska Miedz SA | Europe Ioannis Masvoulas, CFA

Equity Analyst

1Q26: Large EBITDA beat driven Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.comAlain Gabriel, CFA +44 20 7425-0427

Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.com +44 20 7425-8959

by revaluation effects, net debt Ferdinand Huber

Research Associate

Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

higher Adahna Ekoku

Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

Reaction to earnings

KGHM Polska Miedz SA (KGH.WA, KGH PW)

Unchanged Modest upside Largely unchanged

Metals & Mining | Poland

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS Stock Rating Overweight

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Industry View In-Line

Price target PLN 381.00

Shr price, close (May 13, 2026) PLN 380.00

Key Takeaways 52-WeekMkt cap, currRange(mn) PLN 396.40-PLN 117.0076,000

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* PLN 1,265

Adj. EBITDA of PLN5.5bn was 24%-29% above VA consensus and MSe, mainly on EV, curr (mn)* PLN 81,475

a PLN2.2bn (non-cash) inventory revaluation

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Net debt was higher on large working capital build (-PLN2.6bn delta vs MSe) and

despite modestly lower capex (-PLN100mn vs MSe) and PLN0.6bn interest

received

We expect KGHM shares to trade largely in line with the sector following a mixed

set of results

1Q26 EBITDA a wide beat driven by (non-cash) inventory revaluation, net debt

higher: Adjusted EBITDA (incl. Sierra Gorda share) at PLN5.5bn was significantly

above Visible Alpha consensus at PLN4.4bn and MSe at PLN4.25bn. The beat was