Mitsui Kinzoku: F3/26 Results: F3/27 Guidance Is Conservative, but Impression Is Negative

Research evidence excerpt

Mitsui Kinzoku: F3/26 Results: F3/27 Guidance Is Conservative, but Impression Is Negative

Update

May 13, 2026 03:48 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MMitsui Kinzoku (5706) | Japan Yu Shirakawa

Equity Analyst

F3/26 Results: F3/27 Guidance Is Yu.Shirakawa@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5432

Mitsui Kinzoku (5706.T, 5706 JT)

Nonferrous Metals & Mining | JapanConservative, but Impression Is

Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View In-Line

Price target ¥37,000Negative Shr price, close (May 13, 2026) ¥54,900

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥3,135.4

Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥31.7

Reaction to earnings

Unchanged Modest upside Modest revision lower

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

F3/26 results beat consensus: F3/26 RP came in at ¥136.7bn (+79% YoY), beating

consensus for ¥121.0bn and guidance/our forecast for ¥120.0bn. Reasons for the

overshoot vs. our forecast included effects of market prices in the Metals segment.

F3/27 RP guidance is much lower than consensus: F3/26 RP guidance for ¥93.0bn

(-32% YoY) is lower than our forecast for ¥125.0bn and consensus for ¥114.0bn, with

targets for Engineered Materials and Metals both about ¥10bn lower than our

estimates. The plan for a profit fall after one-time factors are excluded (¥97.8bn in

F3/26 → ¥85.4bn in F3/27) gives a negative impression. In Engineered Materials, the

firm looks to a YoY rise of ¥5bn for copper foil but the plan for flat profit overall

due to higher head office costs, etc, is a negative surprise. At the same time, we

believe the company is making conservative assumptions for price increases and

sales volumes (+13%) where MicroThin and VSP foil are concerned. Still, while