HBX Group International PLC: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

HBX Group International PLC: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – HBX Group International PLC (HBX.MC)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Organic revenue growth (%) 5.0 (1.5) 3.6 3.4

EBITDA margin (%) 59.9 58.3 59.2 60.0

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Earnings results (focus on TTV growth, take RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Sep 2026e

rates, and margin expansion) Acceleration in underlying leisure travel

Exclusive supplier agreement announcements demand Sales / 697

Debt refinancing at lower rates Higher than expected operating leverage due to Revenue 688 762

Tuck-in M&A to broaden adjacent product areas lower fixed cost growth (€, mn) 722

(e.g. Fintech) Continued market share gains from smaller

bedbanks

Successful rollout of fintech and insurance EBITDA

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE products (€, mn) 406 454

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 0-10% China and India Pressure on the take rate

0-10% India Disintermediation risk EPS 0.96

0-10% Japan Increasing pressure from OTAs offering B2B (€) 0.84 1.06

0-10% MEA Uncertainty over normalised industry growth 1.00

0-10% Mainland China rates

0-10% UK Cyclical slowdown in travel demand Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

10-20% Latin America Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

10-20% North America

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 30-40% Europe ex UK

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Inst. Owners, % Active 97.2%

View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.6x

HF Sector Net Exposure 7.7%

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a