Kawasaki Kisen: Post–F3/26 4Q Results Follow-up: Significant RP Decline Looks Likely in F3/27 1Q

Research evidence excerpt

Kawasaki Kisen: Post–F3/26 4Q Results Follow-up: Significant RP Decline Looks Likely in F3/27 1Q

Update

May 13, 2026 12:48 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MKawasaki Kisen (9107) | Japan Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

Post–F3/26 4Q Results Follow- Takuya.Osaka@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5438

Kawasaki Kisen (9107.T, 9107 JT)

Marine Transportation | Japanup: Significant RP Decline Looks

Stock Rating Underweight

Industry View Cautious

Price target ¥1,240Likely in F3/27 1Q Shr price, close (May 13, 2026) ¥2,510

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥1,585.5

Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥12.3

Our view based on discussions with the company: 1) The company’s energy business

is largely based on medium- to long-term contracts, with almost no exposure to

spot vessels. As such, the positive impact from higher energy prices appears limited.

While more favorable terms may be negotiated at future contract renewals, the

upside impact seems likely to remain modest. 2) Car carrier business: The expected

decline in RP in F3/26–F3/27 (also envisioned in the company plan) is likely driven by

cost inflation (delivery of higher-cost vessels, higher personnel expenses, etc.) and a

downward trend in medium- to long-term contract rates reflecting softer spot

freight rates. We believe similar trends apply to peers (see related report). 3) We

see a high likelihood that RP in F3/27 1Q will decline significantly YoY. This reflects

the full impact of negative factors stemming from heightened Middle East tensions

(including reduced shipment volumes to the Middle East in car carriers and higher

fuel costs in the container shipping business, with a time lag due to delays in

implementing fuel surcharges). We believe peers are likely facing similar conditions.

Related report: