Kaken Pharmaceutical: F3/26 4Q Results: No Share Buybacks, but OP Guidance of ¥7.9bn Exceeds Market Expectations

Research evidence excerpt

Kaken Pharmaceutical: F3/26 4Q Results: No Share Buybacks, but OP Guidance of ¥7.9bn Exceeds Market Expectations

Update

May 13, 2026 11:57 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MKaken Pharmaceutical (4521) | Japan Jaeheon Lee

Equity Analyst

F3/26 4Q Results: No Share Jaeheon.Lee@morganstanleymufg.comShinichiro Muraoka +81 3 6836-8443

Shinichiro.Muraoka@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5424

Buybacks, but OP Guidance of

Kaken Pharmaceutical (4521.T, 4521 JP)

Pharmaceuticals | Japan¥7.9bn Exceeds Market

Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View In-Line

Price target ¥5,200Expectations Shr price, close (May 13, 2026) ¥4,010

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥153.0

Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥0.6

Reaction to earnings

Strengthens our thesis Meaningful shortfall Meaningful revision higher

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

F3/26 results: Op loss of ¥0.89bn, but Kaken had already announced a downward

revision on Apr 22 (no surprise). Main reason was timing of milestone

recognition.

F3/27 guidance: OP of ¥7.9bn; above market/our expectations. We estimate

market expectations were around ¥5bn.

OP upside drivers appear to include the $70mn development milestone for KP-

723 for atopic dermatitis, in addition to a contribution of $30-40mn from upfront

payments related to out-licensing/partnerships for other new drugs.

Given Kaken's conservative guidance stance, we believe the probability of out-

licensing/partnerships is reasonably high. We expect EP4 inhibitor KP-483 (solid

tumors) to be the most likely candidate.

New drugs, as well as earnings, are attractive: An earnings growth phase driven by

new drugs is now in sight.