PHC Holdings: F3/26 4Q Results: We Anticipate a Future Guidance Hike

Research evidence excerpt

PHC Holdings: F3/26 4Q Results: We Anticipate a Future Guidance Hike

Update

May 13, 2026 11:49 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MPHC Holdings (6523) | Japan Ryotaro Hayashi

Equity Analyst

F3/26 4Q Results: We Ryotaro.Hayashi@morganstanleymufg.comErina Tokunaga +81 3 6836-8409

Research Associate

Erina.Tokunaga@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8418

Anticipate a Future Guidance

PHC Holdings (6523.T, 6523 JT)

Medical Technology | JapanHike

Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View In-Line

Price target ¥1,450

Reaction to earnings Shr price, close (May 13, 2026) ¥952

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥120.4

Unchanged Meaningful upside Largely unchanged Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥0.2

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Related report

Medical Technology: Preview of F3/27 Guidance

Key Takeaways & Potential Share Buyback Announcements (27

Mar 2026)

4Q OP significantly beat the consensus. Adj. EBITDA was also well above our

forecast (Ex.1). We take this as evidence of profitability improvement efforts.

F3/27 OP guidance came in slightly below the consensus (Ex.1), but we

understand PHC's assumptions for the BGM business and FX are conservative.

PHC factors in profit gains (+¥5.8bn YoY) from the CGM business sale in F3/27.

We expect profit growth to exceed guidance, driven by BGM and PHCbi.

We view F3/27 guidance as conservative: Guidance appears to assume a -1% YoY

decline in sales in the BGM business in F3/27 on a constant currency basis. However,

we estimate that in F3/26, the company was able to achieve roughly +3% YoY

growth on a constant currency basis, driven by price hikes and market share gains,