Toei Animation: F3/26 Results: Sales Growth Plan; Rising Costs a Concern But Overall Read Suggests Upside

Research evidence excerpt

Toei Animation: F3/26 Results: Sales Growth Plan; Rising Costs a Concern But Overall Read Suggests Upside

Update

May 13, 2026 10:32 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MToei Animation (4816) | Japan Katsumi Arai

Equity Analyst

F3/26 Results: Sales Growth Katsumi.Arai@morganstanleymufg.comAkiho Toyama +81 3 6836-8918

Akiho.Toyama@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8405

Plan; Rising Costs a Concern

Toei Animation (4816.T, 4816 JT)

Services / Leisure | JapanBut Overall Read Suggests

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View In-Line

Price target ¥2,900Upside Shr price, close (May 13, 2026) ¥2,820

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥561.2

Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥1.3

Reaction to earnings

Unchanged In-line Modest revision lower

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

For F3/27, the first year of the mid-term plan, strategic investment is planned at

around ¥15bn.

OP guidance for F3/27 is ¥25bn (YoY -19%), a sharp profit decline.

The plan appears conservative, but even so the revenue growth plan is positive.

Rising costs are a concern, but our initial impression is that the company plan has

upside potential.

Results briefing is scheduled for tomorrow (May 14).

F3/27, the first year of the five-year mid-term plan announced in October last year,

includes approximately ¥15bn in strategic investments. The overall mid-term plan

targets around ¥200bn, suggesting a relatively modest investment level in the first

year. Of this, about ¥2bn is expected to be expensed, with the majority comprising

balance sheet investments such as content investments and the establishment of

studios and overseas bases. Meanwhile, the OP plan excluding strategic investments