Obayashi: F3/26 4Q Results: No DOE Policy Changes or Buyback Announcement, but Guidance Confirms Favorable Business Conditions

Research evidence excerpt

Obayashi: F3/26 4Q Results: No DOE Policy Changes or Buyback Announcement, but Guidance Confirms Favorable Business Conditions

Update

May 13, 2026 09:24 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MObayashi (1802) | Japan Ryo Yagi

Equity Analyst

F3/26 4Q Results: No DOE Ryo.Yagi@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8938

Obayashi (1802.T, 1802 JT)

Construction | JapanPolicy Changes or Buyback

Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View Attractive

Price target ¥4,900Announcement, but Guidance Shr price, close (May 13, 2026) ¥3,699

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥2,542.8

DPS (03/26e) ¥87.0Confirms Favorable Business ROE (03/26e) (%)* 14.9

P/BV, basic (03/26e) 2.2

P/E, basic (03/26e)* 15.3

EV/EBITDA, basic (03/26e) 13.5Conditions

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Reaction to earnings

Unchanged In-line Largely unchanged

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

We think the market was watching for changes to Obayshi's

DOE policy or a buyback announcement, which were not

forthcoming; however, guidance levels were above market

expectations and point to favorable business conditions.

Key Takeaways

Obayashi posted F3/26 OP +36.6% YoY to ¥194.7bn, on par with our ¥196bn

forecast and ¥195.4bn consensus.

F3/27 OP guidance of ¥180bn is lower than our ¥186bn forecast and the

consensus figure of ¥189.4bn, but the forecast for a profit decline was expected.

The company raised its F3/27 dividend plan to ¥94/share (from ¥88 in F3/26).

Orders (parent): F3/26 parent orders were -23.2% YoY to ¥1,165bn for construction

and -12.7% to ¥439.9bn for civil engineering. F3/27 targets are ¥1,250bn and ¥397bn,

respectively.

Margin (parent gross margin): The parent gross margin on construction was 14.8%