Coface (AO) | Buy | Q1 results: solid execution despite macro headwinds

Research evidence excerpt

Coface (AO) | Buy | Q1 results: solid execution despite macro headwinds

Coface Buy | Target Price: EUR17.00

Company description Management

Coface is a global leader in trade credit insurance, helping companies manage Xavier Durand, CEO

and protect against the risk of customer default in domestic and export markets. Thibault Surer, Head of Strategy and business

Operating in nearly 200 countries, it combines strong underwriting expertise, development Phalla Gervais, CFO & Risk director

extensive data capabilities, and growing service lines in business information

and debt collection. Key shareholders

Free float 70.14%

Arch Capital Group Ltd. 29.86%

Investment case Valuation methodology

Coface has a solid top three global position in credit insurance. ROE/COE using a 9.4% cost of equity.

As the economic outlook for 2025 remains subdued, Coface P/E and dividend yield comparison to peers.

stands out as a reliable high-yield dividend stock. The company Risks to our rating

is a leading player in the credit insurance market with a unique Large shock affecting the economy and potentially leading to a

focus on data and a best-in-class combined ratio. surge in claims.

The normalisation process characterised by slower economic Low inflation and sluggish economic growth.

growth, disinflation, and rising insolvencies is already well

underway. We expect Coface to continue to show strength in

that manageable environment.

We see the EUR14-15 range as good entry levels. The timing is

more uncertain depending on the evolution of macro. Coface

should be viewed as a pre-recovery, early cyclical name.

Catalysts

Economic growth, inflation, and corporate insolvencies.

Ramp-up of the Business Information activity.

Achievements of strategic targets contained in the Power The