Valneva (AO) | Buy | Sharp Q1 miss; guidance cut reinforces pressure on base business

Research evidence excerpt

Valneva (AO) | Buy | Sharp Q1 miss; guidance cut reinforces pressure on base business

and operating cash burn improving to only EUR0.3m in Q1. However, the combination of a major revenue miss, an EBITDA miss, a

guidance cut and another restructuring plan is likely to weigh materially on sentiment today.

Lyme remains the central investment case. Following the positive Phase III VALOR readout, with LB6V demonstrating more than

70% efficacy and no safety concerns identified, Pfizer is expected to proceed with regulatory submissions. This remains the main

strategic and valuation driver, but today’s Q1 release is a reminder that, outside Lyme, the commercial base is weaker and less

predictable than previously hoped. We will therefore update our model to reflect the new top-line guidance and revised cost

base.

A poor Q1, with weakness across the commercial portfolio

Product sales declined to EUR30.5m from EUR48.6m in Q1 2025, coming c.35% below the company-collected consensus of

EUR46.7m. Part of the decline was expected, as third-party product sales were down 97.6% to only EUR0.1m following the

planned wind-down of this non-core activity. However, the magnitude of the miss suggests that expectations were still too high

for the proprietary portfolio and shipment phasing.

IXIARO/JESPECT sales declined to EUR20.2m from EUR27.5m, mainly due to shipment phasing to the US Department of Defense.

This is not necessarily a structural issue, but it adds volatility to the largest commercial product and confirms the high

dependence of the franchise on DoD timing.

DUKORAL sales were EUR8.6m versus EUR12.3m, with Q1 2025 helped by one-off Mayotte cholera-related orders. Q1 2026 was

also impacted by the distributor transition in Germany, with deliveries expected to resume in Q2.