Uniper (1K) | Reduce (vs Hold) | Crisis mode: It worked (downgrade)

Research evidence excerpt

Uniper (1K) | Reduce (vs Hold) | Crisis mode: It worked (downgrade)

ion that European energy markets would be facing EPS adj. and ful. dil. 1.75 1.97 1.93

Consensus EPS 1.3 1.4 1.5

the next "2022". They do (see our most recent market update Hormuz ECG - The Net dividend 0.72 0.81 0.79

Hornets don't want to go back, 5 May), and its effects should lead to group results

FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E better than guidance based on normalised conditions. P/E adj and ful. dil. 24.8 22.1 22.5

We don't see European energy markets returning to a full normal swiftly, as we EV/EBITDA 10.5 9.4 9.5

(still) don't believe in a swift solution for Hormuz. That said, after a 20% share EV/EBIT 17.0 14.9 15.4

FCF yield -0.6% 0.1% 0.2% price jump since we made the stock a crisis pick in early March, potential benefits Dividend yield 1.7% 1.9% 1.8%

now seem fully discounted. ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA -2.6 -2.1 -1.9

That also means that if our above-guidance assumptions aren't getting confirmed Gearing -27.7% -24.5% -21.5%

ROIC 5.3% 5.6% 5.2%

at a later stage, the shares' valuation would look even more exposed. We therefore EV/IC 1.2 1.1 1.1

downgrade to Reduce here.

Deconstructing the forecasts

Full model recalibration in light of Q1 accounts and company updates.

Valuation and investment conclusion

Our above-guidance valuation for the group isn't making it over the EUR30 mark.

Our unchanged EUR35 TP therefore remains in generous territory. At a share price Ingo Becker, CFA

nearly EUR10 above that, the only logical consequence is a downgrade of our Head of Utilities/Renewable Energy

+49 69 7569 6295 rating. ibecker@keplercheuvreux.com

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