Centrica (1K) | Hold | Crisis mode: Waiting for (more) impact

Research evidence excerpt

Centrica (1K) | Hold | Crisis mode: Waiting for (more) impact

#EstimatesRevision

Release date: 13 May 2026

Company research

ESG profile HoldCentrica

United Kingdom | Utilities Beta Profile: MCap: GBP9.4bn

Target Price: 200p Change in TP: 0.0 % Bloomberg: CNA LN Reuters: CNA.L

Current Price: 203.30p Change in Sales: none 26E/0.7% 27E Free float 100%

Up/downside: -1.6% Change in Adj EBIT: 1.6% 26E/-1.4% 27E Avg. daily volume (GBPm) 4,703.9

YTD abs performance 19.9% Market data: 12 May 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: -7.2% 26E/-4.8% 27E

52-week high/low (GBP) 218.70/145.85

Crisis mode: Waiting for (more) impact Price performance

Why this report?

We anticipated the war in Iran to create notable turmoil in European energy

markets from the beginning, and for that reason modelled Centrica's

arbitrage operations (flex gen and trading) above guidance. The group's Q1

trading statement didn't yet confirm these expectations, but that could

change later in the year as energy price curves did produce the effects we

anticipated (Into crisis mode from 16 March). Our 200p target price is a

rounded-up figure already (our fundamental valuation of the stock remains

somewhat below that level), and we therefore see no scope for a higher

rating. But looming crisis effects, as we see them, could provide some

support in the months/quarters ahead.

Key findings FY to 31/12 (GBP) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

We have included the Severn 850MW (2x245MW) gas-fired power plant acquisition Sales 24,363 24,520 24,522

in South Wales, which increases capex from GBP0.7bn to GBP1.1bn in 2026, EBITDA adj. 1,138 1,382 1,376

alongside a small negative EPS effect, and positive (GBP30-60bn EBITDA) effects EBIT adj. 726 961 960

Net profit adj. 590 810 807from 2027. Net financial debt -846 -843 -934