Alfen (AO) | Hold | A front-loaded beat

Research evidence excerpt

Alfen (AO) | Hold | A front-loaded beat

News comment

Release date: 13 May 2026

Ruben Devos, CFA

Equity Research Analyst

Hold +32 11 49 14 68Alfen rdevos@keplercheuvreux.com

Netherlands | Capital goods Beta Profile: MCap: EUR261.9M

Target Price: EUR9.00 Bloomberg: ALFEN NA Reuters: ALFEN.AS

Current Price: EUR12.08 Free float 100%

Up/downside: -25.5% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 3.4

YTD abs performance 14.7% Market data: 12 May 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 12.44/8.26

A front-loaded beat

Key points:

Alfen delivered its strongest Q1 in two years, beating consensus on revenue (+13%), gross profit (+7%), and EBITDA (+24%). Two of

three segments clearly delivered growth on the back of strong secular drivers, with Dutch DSOs lifting investment spend (record-

high 2026–2028 plans, transport distribution station rollouts scaling tenfold via the turnkey model) and ESS projects taking off

again with less project volatility. Combined, this points to a genuine sales upcycle for the SGS/ESS engine, with the 24% EBITDA

beat versus consensus illustrating the operating leverage inherent in the model on higher volumes.

That said, FY 2026 guidance was reiterated, and management explicitly flagged that H1 is front-loaded due to ESS (Q2 expected in

line with Q1). That gives limited evidence yet of a structurally higher earnings capacity at group level, particularly as higher-

margin EVC revenue declined 19% YOY and remains under pressure. The resulting mix effect drove a 3.6pp YOY decline in group

gross margin.

Alfen implemented its BU-led organisational structure on 1 May as planned, alongside broader sales responsibilities and

expanded local service teams in key European markets. Execution of the February strategy update remains on track, although any