Yadea: Lift 2026 overseas volume guidance to 600k+ units; margin normalizes from April

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Yadea: Lift 2026 overseas volume guidance to 600k+ units; margin normalizes from April

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Yadea

Lift 2026 overseas volume guidance to

600k+ units; margin normalizes from April

Maintain Rating: BUY | PO: 17.00 HKD | Price: 12.32 HKD

Overseas: 600-700k volume & narrowing losses in 2026E 12 May 2026

We hosted Yadea group meetings. Yadea revised up its 2026 overseas volume sales Equity

guidance to 600-700k from 500k units previously, as it sees strong overseas wholesales

recently - 50k units in March, 60k in April, and 70k expected in May. Yadea expects 270– JoeyResearchYang,AnalystCFA >>

280k units overseas wholesales in 1H26, with a small contribution from new channel Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

expansion (10-20k units only). In 2026, Vietnam (250–300k), Indonesia (100k, aided by joey.z.yang@bofa.com

potential subsidies), and Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia (100k combined) are key MingResearchHsunAnalystLee, CFA >>

contributors, alongside Mexico (50k). Longer run, Southeast Asia remains the core Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

growth driver, with a mid-term target of 2mn units in 2-3 years. Capacity build-out is Fiona Liang >>

progressing rapidly: Vietnam phase I has an annual production capacity of 1mn units, ResearchMerrill LynchAnalyst(Hong Kong)

Indonesia has 150k assembly capacity with long-term expansion potential, and Thailand Jessie Lo >>

has an assembly capacity of 200k units. Overseas losses are expected to narrow Research Analyst

meaningfully with scale: RMB300mn loss in 2025 improving to RMB100mn loss in 2026. Merrill Lynch (Singapore)

Domestic demand sees gradual recovery in 2Q26

In China domestic market, Yadea is on a gradual recovery path. In April, Yadea’s Stock Data

wholesales volume grew 5-10% YoY, while its retail volume dropped by 5-10% YoY,