Autos - India: Aspiration vs. Arithmetic: Decoding India PV OEM guides for F27

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Autos - India: Aspiration vs. Arithmetic: Decoding India PV OEM guides for F27

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Autos - India

Aspiration vs. Arithmetic: Decoding India

PV OEM guides for F27

Industry Overview

F27 guidance conundrum: Math doesn’t reconcile… 11 May 2026

F27 has begun on rather optimistic guidance from the top 4 OEMs but the aggregate Equity

math is hard to add up. Maruti, M&M, Hyundai have guided to 10% y/y, mid to high teen India

and 8-10% growth guidance for F27, respectively. Tata will also likely have a double digit Autos

volume growth guide with Q4 print later this week, supported by Sierra bookings Gunjan Prithyani >>

(>100K). Against this, the industry growth expectation is at 5-7% for F27, even as these Research Analyst

players account for almost 80% of industry demand. Even if we assume these guides at BofAS+91 22India6632 8246

lower end, the rest of the industry will likely have to decline by 15-20% y/y. That sounds gunjan.prithyani@bofa.com

implausible. There is a fair bit of product action and India focused strategy from KIA, Eshan Bhargava >>

Research Analyst

Toyota, MG & even select EU brands. The disconnect suggests either guides are BofAS India

aspirational or the industry itself will grow over 10% y/y despite uncertain macro. +91 22 6632 3004

eshan.bhargava@bofa.com

Where is the visibility: Product, base effect & track record

We weigh in F27 target on three metrics: orderbook visibility, base effect & track record

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M): Beat.

# Portfolio backlogs: On backlogs and channel stock, Maruti screens the best with

Raise. Repeat. Still cheap

190K odd order book & channel stock of 10-12 days as of F26 end. These two, in itself,

lock in 10% volume growth as capacity constraints ease now. M&M and Tata Motors, Maruti: Demand steady, cost