Global Agriculture Monthly: Grains & sugar: clear casualties of El Niño

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Global Agriculture Monthly: Grains & sugar: clear casualties of El Niño

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Global Agriculture Monthly

Grains & sugar: clear casualties of El Niño

El Niño is gaining extraordinary strength 11 May 2026

While there are many El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting models, they all Commodities

point to the same conclusion: El Niño is coming, and it is likely to be strong. The Global

Australian Bureau of Meteorology is already warning of a potentially historically extreme Global Commodity Research

event. The peak is currently expected in autumn, coinciding with the late growing cycle BofA Europe (Madrid)

and harvest period in the US and Australia, and the planting phase in South America. Daryna Kovalska

This timing is particularly adverse, as crops may suffer material damage or be planted Commodity Strategist MLI (UK)

into unusually dry soil, potentially prompting farmers to reduce the planted area. +44 20 7996 1023

daryna.kovalska@bofa.com

Francisco BlanchWhen it hits hard, grain supplies collapse… Commodity & Deriv Strategist

Wheat production in Australia has shown near-universal declines during El Niño events BofA Europe (Madrid)

and could fall by 20-60% yoy in 2026/27 under an extreme drought scenario. El Niño +34francisco.blanch@bofa.com91 514 3070

also puts around 10 mn t of Argentina’s wheat output at risk (vs 28 mn t harvested in Equity Research

2025/26), as excessive rainfall and flooding disrupt production. Meanwhile, Brazil’s corn Isabella Simonato >>

crop is highly exposed to El Niño-induced drier-than-normal conditions, and we currently ResearchMerrill LynchAnalyst(Brazil)

expect the 2026/27 harvest to decline by around 10% yoy. +55 11 2188 4243

isabella.simonato@bofa.com

…and sugar output goes down too JuliaResearchZanioloAnalyst>>