Nippon Shinyaku: Implications from Capricor’s 1Q26 Results

Research evidence excerpt

Nippon Shinyaku: Implications from Capricor’s 1Q26 Results

Update

May 12, 2026 11:54 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MNippon Shinyaku (4516) | Japan Jaeheon Lee

Equity Analyst

Implications from Capricor’s Jaeheon.Lee@morganstanleymufg.comShinichiro Muraoka +81 3 6836-8443

Shinichiro.Muraoka@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5424

1Q26 Results

Nippon Shinyaku (4516.T, 4516 JT)

Pharmaceuticals | Japan

Key Takeaways Stock Rating Underweight

Industry View In-Line

Capricor (not covered) announced 1Q results on the morning of May 13 (JST). The Price target ¥2,600

Q&A session during the briefing focused mainly on the validity of the litigation. Shr price, close (May 12, 2026) ¥4,112

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥277.0

Management emphasized issues with pricing structure, Nippon Shinyaku’s Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥1.6

insufficient launch preparation, and Capricor’s confidence in independently

commercializing the product.

Capricor plans to hire a Chief Commercial Officer with commercial experience in

the DMD field to support independent sales.

On supply capacity, the current system can support 200–250 patients per year.

The company plans to expand capacity to 2,000–2,500 patients annually by

early 2027.

The company indicated no particular concerns regarding the FDA review process

or financial position.

Overview: Since Mar 2025, Capricor said it has continued discussions with Nippon

Shinyaku for over one year regarding revisions to the pricing structure. However,

negotiations collapsed as Nippon Shinyaku did not make concessions. Capricor also

pointed out that Nippon Shinyaku halted launch preparations after receiving the

Complete Response Letter. Key launch preparations that would normally begin 12–

18 months in advance have been significantly delayed.