CRH: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

CRH: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – CRH (CRH.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

04 Aug 2026 -

Organic (%) (%) (0.7) 3.1 5.2 4.3 Q2 2026 CRH PLC Earnings Release

10 Aug 2026

03 Nov 2026 -

Acquisition (%) (%) 4.8 2.0 2.4 2.1 Q3 2026 CRH PLC Earnings Release

09 Nov 2026

Total Revenue growth (%) (%) 5.3 6.2 7.5 6.4

Adj. EBITDA Margin (%) 20.5 20.9 21.5 22.3

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Cement demand / volumes RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Cement prices Acceleration of the construction cycle leading

Aggregate demand and pricing - heavily geared to volume/price assumptions that differ from Sales / 39,775

to infrastructure spending our base case Revenue 38,649 41,082

Cost inflation US infrastructure spend surprising to the ($, mm) 39,691

Self-help portfolio optimisation initiatives upside

M&A: prudent allocation of capital

8,312

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE CRH splitting the US business from the EBITDA

European assets, presenting re-rating potential ($, mm) 7,811 8,391

8,269

10-20% UK RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

20-30% Europe ex UK Deceleration of the construction cycle

5,894

60-70% North America US infrastructure spend surprising to the EBIT

5,495 6,047

downside ($, mm)

M&A: poor capital allocation 5,931

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING EPS 5.79

5.72 6.20

MS ALPHA MODELS Inst. Owners, % Active 60.4% ($) 5.96

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2x

2/5 24 Month 2/5 3 Month

BEST Horizon MOST Horizon HF Sector Net Exposure 5.5% Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is Refinitiv; MSPB Content.