Via Transportation Inc: 1Q26 Results: Time to Convert the Pipeline

Research evidence excerpt

Via Transportation Inc: 1Q26 Results: Time to Convert the Pipeline

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Via Transportation- Via TransportationInc (VIA.N) Inc (VIA.N)

Differentiated Platform + Large TAM + Compelling Customer ROI, Attractive Price

PRICE TARGET $24.00 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

Based off of 9x Base Case 2035e FCF, discounted back at 10.7%, implying 7x CY27e Gross ▪Public transit providers have

Profit or 0.26x on a growth-adjusted basis, a discount to SMID software at 0.51x. 9x EV/FCF underinvested in tech, using legacy &

is a discount to the current forward SMID software average at 16x. manual solutions, delivering poor outcomes

modern, AI driven platform is well $33.70 ▪Via’s

positioned to transform the $250B NA + EU

Consensus Price Target Distribution $23.00 $55.00 TAM. We think durable 20%+ growth is MS PT

achievableSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

▪Via's proprietary data assets, AI/ML

capabilities & gov't end-market optimized

GTM strategy deepens its competitive moat

RISK REWARD CHART & reinforces its leadership position

▪High mix of low-margin services rev to

USD remain key debate, putting a lower ceiling

on terminal margins, forcing Gross Profit as

key financial & valuation metric

48 $42.00$42.00(+148.08%)$42.00(+148.08%)(+148.08%)

Consensus Rating Distribution

36 100%Overweight

0% Equal-weight

0% Underweight

24 $24.00$24.00(+41.76%)$24.00(+41.76%)(+41.76%)

MS Rating

$16.93$16.93$16.93

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

$11.00$11.00(-35.03%)$11.00(-35.03%)(-35.03%) Risk Reward Themes

MAY '25 NOV '25 MAY '26 MAY '27 Disruption: Positive

Technology Diffusion: Positive

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here