Daikin Industries: F3/26 4Q Results: Earnings Broadly In Range; Share Buyback Larger Than Expected – Positive

Research evidence excerpt

Daikin Industries: F3/26 4Q Results: Earnings Broadly In Range; Share Buyback Larger Than Expected – Positive

Update

May 12, 2026 12:38 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+MDaikin Industries (6367) | Japan Lisa Jiang

Equity Analyst

F3/26 4Q Results: Earnings Lisa.Jiang1@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+ +852 2239-1282

Daisuke Horiuchi

Research AssociateBroadly In Range; Share Daisuke.Horiuchi@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5428

Daikin Industries (6367.T, 6367 JT)Buyback Larger Than Expected

General Machinery | Japan

Stock Rating Underweight– Positive Industry View In-Line

Price target ¥16,000

Shr price, close (May 12, 2026) ¥24,110

Reaction to earnings Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥7,059.5

Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥21.6

Weakens our thesis Modest upside Largely unchanged

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

F3/27 guidance calls for continued sales and profit growth, as expected.

Daikin announced a ¥350bn share buyback scheme, equivalent to ~5% of market

cap based on May 12 closing price. This is bigger than we expected.

Under FUSION 30, the focus has shifted from sales growth to improved

profitability and capital efficiency.

Management expressed a commitment to achieving F3/29 targets in 1H of the

mid-term plan (10% OPM, 12% ROE).

Results & new guidance came in broadly as we expected, but the large buyback &

new MTP policy shift leaves us with a positive impression.

4Q results: 4Q OP was +29% YoY to ¥107.1bn, above our ¥92bn forecast and the

¥95bn consensus, but in line with guidance. Vs. guidance, downside in sales

expansion effects was offset by upside in fixed cost savings and yen depreciation

effects.