US Economics Mid-Year Outlook: Capex Over Consumption

Research evidence excerpt

US Economics Mid-Year Outlook: Capex Over Consumption

North America InsightM

Executive Summary

A Multipolar World Brings More Geopolitical Competition

Just as it appeared that "animal spirits" were ready for liftoff in early 2026, the US

economy was hit with an oil price shock following the initiation of hostilities in the Middle

East. Brent futures, which had been hovering around $70/bbl in early February, have

ranged between $90-120/bbl since. This represents the fourth supply shock to hit the

economy in recent years, with the first three being the COVID pandemic, the Russia-

Ukraine conflict, and the tariff shock of 2025.

We continue to emphasize that uncertainty is elevated, particularly given the tenuous

ceasefire in place between the US and Iran. Multiple paths for the US economy remain

viable and baseline forecasts are less relevant than normal. We remain prepared to revise

early and often, as the facts and developments dictate.

As we look back over recent years and cast our gaze forward, four key themes for 2026

from Morgan Stanley Research are: (1) rewiring commerce for a Multipolar World, (2) AI

Tech Diffusion, (3) the Future of Energy, and (4) Societal Shifts.

As it relates to the macroeconomic performance of the US economy, these key themes

mean we continue to see a shift away from an era of benign globalization toward one

defined by rising economic nationalism in key sectors, intensifying geopolitical

competition, and the growing risk that strategic resources are used as policy tools. For

example, the conflict in the Middle East is likely to intensify competition for energy

sources and delivery channels in the same way trade and pandemic shocks reshaped the

landscape in prior years. Just how much remains to be seen, but the direction of travel

seems clear.