Brazil Equity Strategy Macro and Markets Outlook: Webinar Highlights

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil Equity Strategy Macro and Markets Outlook: Webinar Highlights

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

12 May 2026

Brazil Equity Strategy

Macro and Markets Outlook: Webinar Highlights

Economic Outlook and Growth Momentum Co-head of Emerging Markets Equity

Strategy and Head of LatAm and

• Brazil’s economy showed stronger-than-expected growth momentum in the Brazil Strategy

first quarter of 2026. Our GDP forecast was revised up slightly from 1.2% to Emy Shayo Cherman AC

1.5%. Despite the strong start, we expect a deceleration for the remainder of the (55-11) 4950-6684

year due to tight monetary policy. emy.shayo@jpmorgan.com

Cinthya M Mizuguchi

• Higher oil prices (around $100/barrel) are expected to increase inflation but (55-11) 4950-6560

could benefit Brazil’s growth, fiscal accounts, and current account as a net oil cinthya.mizuguchi@jpmorgan.com

exporter. Estimates suggest a 0.1% to 0.2% increase in growth. EM, Economic and Policy Research

• The current account is expected to see a meaningful improvement this year, Cassiana Fernandez

moving from 3% to 2.3% of GDP, partly due to high oil prices, a strong April (55-11) 4950-3369

trade balance, and other factors. cassiana.fernandez@jpmorgan.com

• Brazil’s agricultural sector faces a potential future supply shock if conflict and Vinicius(55-11) 4950-3195Moreira

supply disruptions persist, as the country imports about 80% of its fertilizers. vinicius.moreira@jpmorgan.com

This could reduce crop productivity and raise prices. There is also the mounting

Mirella Sampaio

threat of a powerful El Niño brewing ahead. (55-11) 4950-3289

mirella.sampaio@jpmorgan.com

Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

Figure 1: Change in Macro indicators with Figure 2: Brazil 2026 quarterly GDP Forecast

each 10% rise in oil prices

0.20% 0.20% 0.20%

0.10%