USDA World Ag Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) U.S. 2026/27 Soybean & Wheat Ending Stocks Notably Below Consensus

Research evidence excerpt

USDA World Ag Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE) U.S. 2026/27 Soybean & Wheat Ending Stocks Notably Below Consensus

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

12 May 2026

USDA World Ag Supply & Demand

Estimates (WASDE)

U.S. 2026/27 Soybean & Wheat Ending Stocks Notably

Below Consensus

Today, the USDA introduced global supply and demand estimates for 2026/27 and Machinery, Engineering &

updated its estimates for 2025/26. In the US, 2026/27 ending stocks are estimated Construction

at 1.957B bu of corn (vs. consensus 1.943B bu and 2.142B bu in 2025/26), 310MM Tami Zakaria, CFA AC

bu of soybeans (vs. consensus 366MM bu and 340MM bu in 2025/26), and (1-212) 622-9888

762MM bu of wheat (vs. consensus 845MM bu and 935MM bu in 2025/26). US tami.zakaria@jpmchase.com

2026/27 stocks-to-use (STU) are projected at 12.1% for corn (vs. prior implied Raquel Betesh

12.8% and 13.0% in 2025/26), 6.9% for soybeans (vs. prior implied 7.6% and 8.0% (1-212) 622-1313

in 2025/26), and 40.7% for wheat (vs. prior implied 45.0% and 46.0% in 2025/26). raquel.betesh@jpmchase.com

We view today’s report as incrementally positive for US farmers given 2026/27 Alec R McGuire

(1-212) 622-2432

US wheat and soybean ending stocks are notably below consensus, which is alec.mcguire@jpmorgan.com

potentially supportive of crop prices and farmer profits. Additionally, US new J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

crop farm gate price projections are notably above the February Outlook Forum,

with the projections for corn, soybeans and wheat raised by $0.20, $1.10 and $1.50,

respectively. On the negatives, U.S. new crop corn ending stocks are 1% above

consensus.

• US new crop 2026/27: wheat and soybean ending stocks well below

consensus. 2026/27 US corn supply is estimated at 18.162B bu on a yield of