Olympus (7733) 4Q results: FY2026 FDA compliance impact uncertain, but sales strong; share buyback announced

Research evidence excerpt

Olympus (7733) 4Q results: FY2026 FDA compliance impact uncertain, but sales strong; share buyback announced

JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. Asia Pacific Equity Research

Naoko Saito AC 13 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

(81-3) 6736-8693

naoko.saito@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Olympus (7733) (Overweight; Price Target: ¥1,700)

Investment Thesis

We expect the Chinese business to drive the share price in the short term but expect operating

profit to grow steadily over the longer term in the gastrointestinal solutions division (GIS)

and the surgical & interventional solutions division (SIS). We see further upside potential

for the stock.

Valuation

Our price target of ¥1,700 is 22x our FY2026 EPS estimate. The stock’s average P/E since

Olympus began focusing on the medical equipment business in 2019 (excluding FY2020

and FY2022, when results were heavily affected by the pandemic) is 25x. We think a P/E

of 22x is appropriate because of near-term concerns about market share, Chinese market

conditions, and the response to the FDA. The time horizon of our price target is through

end-December 2026.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Upside Scenario

• Sufficient evaluation of the TSD’s longer-term growth potential

• Improving business environment for healthcare facilities

• Stronger-than-expected sales and profit growth in the medical systems division due to

large-scale order wins

• Further yen depreciation

• Completion of responding to the FDA

Downside Scenario

• The Chinese business weakens more than expected

• Discovery of technical defects in products such as new endoscopes

• Previously unknown past fraudulent transactions or other unexpected events

• Large compensation payments resulting from litigation

• A turn to yen appreciation