Broadlines & Hardlines Retailing April CPI: Food Inflation Ticks Up; Goods Mixed

Research evidence excerpt

Broadlines & Hardlines Retailing April CPI: Food Inflation Ticks Up; Goods Mixed

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

12 May 2026

Broadlines & Hardlines Retailing

April CPI: Food Inflation Ticks Up; Goods Mixed

Headline CPI was +3.8% YOY in April, while core CPI was +2.7% vs. +3.3% Retailing – Broadlines & Hardlines /

and +2.6% in March, respectively. Sequentially, the headline and core indices Leisure

were +0.6% and +0.4%, respectively, vs. JPM Economists’ expectations of +0.5% Christopher Horvers, CFA AC

headline and +0.4% core. (1-212) 622-1316

christopher.horvers@jpmorgan.com

Net-net, we expect April CPI was impacted by a combination of (i) rising energy Christian Carlino, CFA

and food costs pressuring consumer spend, with the latter up 90 bps sequentially (1-212) 622-9145

christian.carlino@jpmorgan.com

in April, (ii) ongoing tariff inflation impacts with comparisons not stepping up until

Barath Rao, CFA2H, and (iii) fading tax stimulus. Indeed, several companies in our coverage have

(1-212) 622-6547

spoken to pricing pressures creating a continued focus on value (see TSCO) with barath.rao@jpmorgan.com

others calling out vendors holding prices to remain competitive (see W). We also

Jolie Wasserman

note ORLY specifically calling out same-SKU inflation expected in line with FY25 (1-212) 622-1961

at ~3% for the year (which we view conservatively considering GPC’s jolie.wasserman@jpmchase.com

commentary on vendor price requests related to energy prices and AZO’s J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

commentary that it expects MSD ticket growth in calendar 2H).

• Looking at the 1Y readings compared to last month, Grocery, Toys/Games/

Hobbies/Playground Equipment, Cosmetics, and Apparel were more

inflationary, while TVs were less deflationary. On the other hand, pricing